Explaining The Inexplicable Trump Victory

First off why were the election polls so far off? For one-thing, with the second Comey e-mail investigation announcement thrown in at the last minute, polls couldn’t keep up with shifting voter sentiment. The second problem was that political polls are designed to be as rational as possible, but with two very unpopular presidential candidates in the running rationality was thin and difficult to measure.

This all meant that the Universal probability balance factor of the positive being offset by the negative was particularly unstable. Usually because of the universal law of probability balance a third of the citizenry can be seen as residing solidly in the positive, hopeful, fairness, inclusive side of the equation with another third residing solidly in the negative, Xenophobic, destructive and hateful side. The remaining third floats back and forth between the positive and negative sides.

The latter third in some respects can be seen a little bit like the qualities of a kindly priest being mixed with those of an Archie Bunker type. They aren’t exactly evil people, but they can’t be counted on to support the forces of light ether. It was this mixed bag element, being pulled first one way then the other according to the latest news event or tweet, that formed the joker in the polling data.

There are always the strong positive and strong negative elements of the electorate that are rock solid and unchangeable. And most of the time as an election draws near the flexible middle third of the electorate has permanently fallen into either the positive or negative camp. But with both candidates being hard to figure out by the flexible middle third (as to who was really the lessor of two evils), in many cases when it came time to pull the lever it was little more than a mental coin toss. The bottom line is that because of some crazy structural factors, such as the Electoral College and other dynamics in play like voter suppression and Russian hacking effects, the greater evil was given a special boost.

On the positive side, if the nation somehow manages to survive the mercurial Donald and the economy killing ideology of the Republicans (they always manage to drive the nation into an economic ditch when pandering to the well-heeled), in the next election probability balance should shift back hard to the positive side. So take heart moderates, Democrats and Independents, things ought to get much better following this current fiasco, but of course only if our democracy endures the coming ordeal.

Jim Ridgway, Jr. military writer — author of the American Civil War classic, “Apprentice Killers: The War of Lincoln and Davis.” Christmas gift, yes!

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store