The 2016 And 2020 Elections Were Nearly Identical
It is now clear what were the main factors in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. As it turns out Russian influence was minimal in both. The internal conflicts of the nation were big enough on their own account so that outside amplification hardly mater in either race.
Here are the most important factors.
1 Tribalism (race)
2 Personality
3 Third Party Candidates
By far the most important factor was tribalism {race) in both elections, but not the deciding factor. It is clear that Trump and the hard right have designated the GOP as the White peoples party and that the Democrats have come to rely heavily upon Black and Brown peoples to carry the day for them. When it comes to the total vote, however, White bigotry loses big time — by the millions. But of course in the Electoral College system of vote counting the anti democratic bigot vote counts for more. As William Spievey recently commented, “the Electoral Collage is affirmative action for White people” Still, overall 58% of White men and 55% of White women voted for the most dangerous man on the planet, tribalism at its worst.
In 2016 personality hurt Clinton far more than it hurt Trump, though ironically most folks would admit than Trump was a nastier human being than Clinton. But, still, Clinton’s lukewarm personality perception was not enough to tip the scales away from the White vote going slightly harder for Trump.
Even though in 2020 Biden was a weak candidate, his personal negatives were much better than Trump’s. So the personality factor did not hurt Biden as much it had Clinton. Though in each case (2016 and 2020) strangely enough personality was a minor factor.
So now we come to the real deciding factor in 2016 vs. 2020: the third party factor. In 2020 the third party factor was negligible and Biden won 306 to Trump’s 232 in the Electoral College vote count. This is an exact opposite Electoral count of the 2016 election where third party candidates Jill Stein and Gray Johnson took meaningful votes away from Clinton.
And so that while tribalism is by far the largest factor politically dividing the country, it was not the deciding factor. Third party candidates, and the lack there of, fill that bill. Thus except for the lack of meanful third party candidates and the that both sides brought out many more voters this time — a wash — 2016 and 2020 elections for president were nearly identical.
